Monday, October 04, 2010

Deal . . .

. . . or no deal

Subtitle: gambling for dummies.

This game show, hosted by Howie Mandel, has been very popular for five years. I believe the only reason that it maintains it's popularity is the sheer idiocy of the contestants they choose.

What the contestants never seem to comprehend is that it's a game of chance, not skill. No matter what system you use, unless you look at the odds, you will lose.

You can believe that the million is in your case. It doesn't matter. It's random

You can be "on a roll." It doesn't matter. It's random.

Your faith that "one more case" will help you doesn't matter. It's random.

Chosing cases by family members' birthdays doesn't matter. It's random.

For most, gambling fever takes over.

Take this doofus. Down to two cases on the board: $1.00 and $1,000,000.00. His offer: $660,000.00. So, here are his choices:

1: $660,000 sure thing.
2: Flip of a coin and you get either a million or nothing.

Guess what he did.

Guess what he went home with.

Yep, $1.00

There is absolutely no skill involved in this game except for the decision about when to quit. Amateur gamblers who don't realize this fact in ANY game of chance eventually go home broke.